(An error in the legend and wording for the state rankings chart has been corrected)
Is there a close relationship between the cost of doing business in a state, and the state’s economy, as the “business climate” gurus and lobbyists, would have us believe? And we do believe it, as witnessed by the legions of cities and states with economic development policies that make lower business costs, lower taxes, and less regulation the focus of governance.
That’s certainly not all bad; and can work to lure a specific company to a particular place, at a given time; not to mentioned what it can do for politician’s career. But viewed from 10,000 feet, and with a longer view – which no one seems to take any more – the results may be surprising. (I’ve whined about the business climate gurus before, here).
I’m also asking a second question, which neither the business climate crowd nor the politicians (since Plato’s time) hardly ask anymore: “Do lower business costs or a better economy make us any happier” or improve our “well being?”
Happiness as the ultimate goal for a society is not just some nutty, woo-woo, “touchy-feely” 1960s hippie concept, or a Green version of the Gross Domestic Product. It was, as you know, consecrated by Thomas Jefferson in the declaration of independence, with the famous phrase about “Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.”
Jefferson said he was an Epicurean. The Epicureans were once ridiculed as hedonists. But neither Jefferson nor the other founders were hedonists. (Although some of the stories about Franklin in Paris may raise an eyebrow, as would Jefferson’s biography). Epicureanism seriously amended hedonism. It urges “simplifying your life” and “limiting your worldly and material desires” as a means toward well being. As you might guess, both sides of today’s vast political divide have a hugely different interpretation of what Jefferson may have meant by happiness. (Am sure Mr. Justice Scalia, for one, has given lots of thought to what Jefferson meant).
So, is there a close relationship between the cost of doing business in a state, and the state’s economy? And does any of that have anything whatsoever to do with happiness or well being?
The short answer is: Business costs and the strength of a state economy are inversely proportional (negatively correlated). Prosperous states are associated with higher business costs; and poorer ones, with lower business costs. Huh? That’s exactly the opposite of what the “business climate” gurus keep telling us.
If you don’t believe me, compare state rankings by Forbes for the “cost of doing business” by state, with the rankings of states by median household income from the U.S.Census Bureau. These measures were taken in the 2012-2013 time frame.
And, how do these business climate and economic ranks comport with state ranks on “well being” or “happiness” as measured by Gallup? (also from the 2012-2013 period). It turns out there is no discernible relationship between business costs and well being (positive or negative). But there is a moderately positive one between a state’s household median income and the happiness of its residents . That’s consistent with the common belief that more money tends to make life better (or at least, reduce suffering), but that money can’t buy everything. But the bridge, from business climate to well being, via a strong economy, is swaying in the wind.
Here is a little table that shows you the specific “correlations” (you may recall that from Stat 101) among the three “variables.” If Stat 101 is a bit foggy, the correlation coefficient is a numerical value indicating the degree and direction of relationship between two variables; the coefficients range in value from +1.00 (perfect positive relationship) to 0.00 (no relationship) to −1.00 (perfect negative or inverse relationship). Yes, we get a minus 0.43 correlation between Business Costs (others call this or include it in Business Climate) and Median Household Income.
Here is a busier chart which show each state’s rank on all three dimensions. The Yellow Shaded states are the ones which have amongst the lowest business costs, but a population that told Gallup surveyors it was (relatively) unhappy (with a subdued level of well being). That’s Column #1 compared with Column #3.
The Green Shaded states are the reverse –high business costs, but happy. Part II (the next blog post) will look at some of the possible reasons for these relationships.
Am not sure why yet, but it’s easy to see that a lot of Border and Deep South states are shaded yellow; while Northeastern and New England states are over-represented in the Green.
California is also shaded Green. That gives some support to the observations of Lisa Halvestadt and her associates in the Voice of San Diego about trade-offs in California between high business costs, taxes, and stiff regulations, on the one hand, and “well being,” on the other. (The alarmingly high poverty rate in California notwithstanding).
The value of looking at this from 10,000 feet and with simple measures, and at one point in time, is that all of these indicators – business costs, median income, and happiness in 2012-2013 — are the cumulative effects of decades of private and public decisions in those states. Not just a headline in a news paper about the taxes that need to be cut right away in LA to keep the film industry in tow.
The business climate gurus will surely dismiss these correlations as simplistic. That’s fine! If it moves them to make their own message less cartoonish, and more nuanced, it will be an accomplishment. We’ll talk a lot more about this in Part II.